By Naween A. Mangi

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s central bank Governor Syed Salim Raza said Asia’s highest interest rates will be gradually reduced this year, ruling out steep cuts that may fuel inflation.

“The risk of too sharp a cut is to convey the feeling that the battle against inflation has been won and unfortunately, that’s not true,” Raza said in an interview in Karachi yesterday. “Too sharp a cut would seem to be populist, premature or succumbing to pressure. I would err on the side of gradualism and do it in stages.”

State Bank of Pakistan raised borrowing costs five times in the past 18 months as inflation accelerated to a three-decade high and domestic political turmoil distracted the government. Gradual reductions may not be enough to revive the economy as the global recession curbs demand for Pakistan’s exports.

“Now is the time to be aggressive and cutting the policy rate by 200 basis points in April will be aggressive,” said Nasim Beg, who manages the equivalent of $118.6 million in stocks and bonds at Arif Habib Investments Ltd. in Karachi. “That’s what the economy needs.”

A widening rift between President Asif Ali Zardari and his former ally Nawaz Sharif is distracting the government from tackling the economic slowdown and deteriorating security.

Lawyers, backed by Sharif, began a four-day protest march on March 12, and plan to converge on the capital Islamabad on March 16. Political tensions flared last month when Sharif accused Zardari of backing a Supreme Court ruling that barred the former premier from running for public office.

Room to Cut

The Asian nation may have room to cut rates if inflation keeps slowing, the International Monetary Fund said last month. Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have risen to $6.6 billion on March 7 after falling to $3.5 billion in October.

“With things going in the right direction, the stage is set within the next couple of months for an opportunity to lower the rate,” Raza, who took over as governor in January, said.

While inflation has declined from a three-decade high reached in August, prices accelerated for the first time in four months in February as food costs rose.

The central bank predicts inflation may ease to 11 percent by June from 21.07 percent last month.

Former Governor Shamshad Akhtar increased the central bank’s discount rate to slow inflation and help shore up Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves. The country was forced to turn to the IMF for a $7.6 billion rescue package last year after its reserves shrank 75 percent in a year to $3.45 billion.

Higher borrowing costs have dented growth in the economy, which is predicted by the government to expand 2.5 percent this fiscal year to June 30, down from 5.8 percent last year.

“Monetary policy actions should be based on future expectations,” said Farid Khan, director at Credit Suisse Pakistan in Karachi. “Inflation will fall sharply and hence there is room for interest rate cuts this calendar year.”

Khan expects a reduction of up to one percentage point at the central bank’s next monetary-policy review in April and another cut by July. 

拉扎体现要降低利率来抵制通货膨胀

作者： Naween A. Mangi

      3月14日（彭博 ）—— 巴基斯坦国国家银行行长赛义德萨利姆拉扎体现，，亚洲今年将逐渐降低银行利率，，扫除急剧下降的可能，，可能助长通货膨胀。。。。。
。

       “冒着大幅度降价的风险是为了转达战胜通货膨胀的信心，，可是不幸的是，，这是不可能的。。。。。
。” 拉扎昨天在卡拉奇接受采访时说，，“太迅猛的一个降价似乎是某些人的想法，，头脑太不可熟或者被通货膨胀屈服了。。。。。
。我一经在过于坚持渐进主义上面犯过过失，，我把他叫做阶段性过失。。。。。
。”

      巴基斯坦国家银行在已往的18个月五次上涨贷款利率，，由于通货膨胀率抵达了的三十年来的大值，，并且海内政治动乱疏散了政府的注重力。。。。。
。逐渐降低利率可能缺乏以增进经济苏醒，，由于经济衰退抑制了需求，，影响了巴基斯坦的出口额度。。。。。
。

       “现在有一个利好新闻，，今年4月政府可能宣布政策，，削减利率200个基点。。。。。
。”纳西姆贝格说，，他是阿里夫哈比比投资有限公司卡拉奇分公司的司理，，治理着价值1.186亿美元的股票和债券。。。。。
。 “这个政策的宣布是经济的需要。。。。。
。”

总统阿西夫阿里扎尔达里和他的前盟友谢里夫之间的裂痕日益扩大，，导致经济增添衰退，，社会清静恶化，，政府岌岌可危。。。。。
。

      支持里夫的状师，，他们在3月12日最先为期4天的抗议游行，，并妄想3月16日在首都伊斯兰堡集中。。。。。
。政治主要时势的爆发是由于上个月高法院指责扎尔达里沙里夫，，榨取前总理竞选公职的裁决。。。。。
。

      降息空间

      国际钱币基金组织上个月体现，，若是通货膨胀继续放缓，，亚洲国家尚有降息的可能。。。。。
。中央银行外汇储备3月7日上升到66亿美元，，而10月份低曾跌至35亿美元。。。。。
。

      “随着事态朝着准确的偏向前进，，银行利息在未来几个月内有降低的可能性，，”拉扎，，1月份新任银行行长。。。。。
。

而通货膨胀率在8月份抵达了30年来的高点，，现在已经下降。。。。。
。从 2月份食物价钱上涨，，接下来4个月，，价钱首次加速增添。。。。。
。

      中央银行预计通货膨胀率会从7月的21.7%，，降低到上月的11%。。。。。
。

      前总统沙姆沙德阿赫塔尔增添中央银行的贴现率，，在缓和通货膨胀的同时资助巴基斯坦增添外汇储备。。。。。
。该国在求助于国际钱币基金组织的76亿美元的拯救妄想后，，去年国家外汇储备镌汰了75%，，降到34.5亿美元。。。。。
。

      借贷本钱上升已经影响了经济增添，，到6月30日，，本财年度该国政府展望经济增添率为2.5%，，低于去年的5.8%。。。。。
。

       “钱币政接应基于对未来的期望”法里德汗说，，巴基斯坦卡拉奇信贷公司的执行董事。。。。。
。 “通货膨胀率将会急剧下降，，因此今年度会有降息的空间。。。。。
。 ” 

      央行下次于4月份的钱币政策审查中，，汗预计会有一个多百分点的降息幅度，，另一次降息会爆发在7月。。。。。
。